Blog
Guides and ideas for automating prediction-market trading on Polymarket and Kalshi.
- 2026-10-13 · 5 min read
Check Fee Assumptions in Prediction Market Backtest Results
Audit the fee model, market rules, rounding and fill assumptions behind a backtest. Distinguish current venue charges from Banger’s implemented simulation policy.
- 2026-10-11 · 4 min read
Choose an Open NFL Market for a Paper Trading Test
Select a current NFL contract for a bounded paper observation. Verify exact identifiers, status, rules and timestamps without assuming an open listing guarantees a fill.
- 2026-10-10 · 5 min read
A First-Week Research Checklist for Paper Trading Builders
A concrete paper-only checklist for your first week building a prediction-market strategy: pick a live contract, inspect data, version it, run a bounded backtest, then write down what stays unproved.
- 2026-10-09 · 4 min read
Check Parameter Sensitivity Before Forward Paper Testing
Before forward paper testing a prediction market strategy, run a small fixed-version parameter comparison to spot fragility and overfitting on thin samples.
- 2026-10-08 · 5 min read
Stop a Paper Session and Preserve Its Research History
How to run a bounded Banger paper test, confirm the stop, read the terminal status, and inspect retained logs, fills, and parameters without deleting history.
- 2026-10-07 · 4 min read
Compare Two Strategy Versions Without Cherry-Picking
A reproducible method for comparing two prediction market strategy versions on the same period, parameters, and execution assumptions, keeping failed and zero-trade runs.
- 2026-10-05 · 3 min read
Why Does My Paper Strategy Have No Fills?
Trace a paper run from startup and ticks through decisions, admission and its actual fill model. Distinguish an intentional observer from rejected orders or missing evidence.
- 2026-10-04 · 5 min read
What Missing Historical Data Means for a Prediction Market Backtest
How candle coverage, missing intervals, and sparse event-contract history quietly break a prediction market backtest, and how to inspect the evidence before trusting a result.
- 2026-10-03 · 4 min read
Your First Python Paper Strategy: Observe Before Placing Orders
Build a bounded Banger paper strategy that reads live prediction market ticks and logs one observation. No orders. What it proves about data, and what it does not.
- 2026-09-02 · 5 min read
Kalshi NFL Contracts, Explained for Sportsbook Bettors
Read Kalshi NFL payout rules, price units, quotes, fees and settlement separately. Ordinary binary examples do not cover every player-market or paper-backtest path.
- 2026-08-19 · 3 min read
Closing Line Value in NFL Research: Uses and Limits
Define a consistent closing-price benchmark for NFL research. Measure quote movement without treating positive CLV as proof of calibration, profit or executable exits.
- 2026-08-17 · 4 min read
How to Backtest an NFL Betting Strategy
A practical guide to backtesting an NFL game-line strategy on historical Kalshi markets: what a backtest tells you, what it cannot, and the overfitting traps that kill sports systems.
- 2026-08-12 · 4 min read
What Moves Prediction-Market Prices
Investigate news, forecasts, orders, liquidity and event timing with explicit quote records. A price move alone does not establish cause, true probability or a profitable signal.
- 2026-08-11 · 3 min read
Can You Use Freqtrade for Prediction Markets?
CCXT now lists Kalshi and Polymarket adapters. Check Freqtrade’s own supported path, settlement model and dry-run evidence before claiming an end-to-end integration.
- 2026-08-10 · 3 min read
Monitoring a Trading Bot: Logs, Metrics, and Alerts
Design useful monitoring for paper research: quote freshness, callback behavior, sanitized evidence and verified cleanup. Alerts should lead to a defined response.
- 2026-08-09 · 3 min read
Running a Paper Strategy Reliably: Beyond a 24/7 Process
A persistent process is not continuous data or reliable execution. Compare host time limits, recovery and shutdown with Banger’s actual bounded paper workflows.
- 2026-08-06 · 3 min read
Streaming Live Prediction-Market Data with WebSockets: Polymarket and Kalshi
Observe event-contract WebSocket messages with bounded connections, correct heartbeat scope and cleanup. Raw frames are not automatically a valid reconstructed order book.
- 2026-08-03 · 4 min read
Secrets Management for Trading-Bot API Keys
Keep API secrets out of repositories and logs, separate environments and plan revocation. Understand Banger’s public paper scope and encrypted control-plane boundary.
- 2026-08-01 · 4 min read
Walk-Forward Testing for Trading Strategies
Why a single in-sample backtest overstates your edge, and how to structure rolling train and test windows for prediction-market strategies on Polymarket and Kalshi.
- 2026-07-31 · 3 min read
How to Clone and Configure a Marketplace Strategy
Inspect a marketplace strategy’s published version and actual parameters before cloning. Check paper admission, accepted overrides, model assumptions and shutdown.
- 2026-07-30 · 4 min read
Building a Mean-Reversion Bot Step by Step
Build a bounded paper-only mean-reversion prototype with the real Banger SDK. Test its toy rule and execution assumptions before interpreting any result.
- 2026-07-29 · 3 min read
How to Trade News on Prediction Markets
Study how event-contract quotes respond to news using recorded receipt times, market rules and executable quotes. Separate a research hypothesis from a trading edge.
- 2026-07-28 · 4 min read
How to Build a Prediction-Market Data Pipeline
Build a reproducible event-contract research dataset with outcome identity, receipt times, quote units, gap records and dated rules. Preserve what the feed could not observe.
- 2026-07-27 · 3 min read
Python Libraries for Prediction-Market Trading: Polymarket and Kalshi
A current map of official Python clients for Polymarket and Kalshi, plus Banger paper research. Check package names, schemas, authentication and simulation scope before integrating.
- 2026-07-23 · 3 min read
Risk Management for Prediction-Market Bots
Separate exposure limits, loss monitoring and verified shutdown in paper research. Use Banger’s actual RiskEnvelope fields without promising automatic liquidation.
- 2026-07-21 · 4 min read
How to Automate Prediction-Market Trading
Build an inspectable paper research workflow from data, decisions, execution assumptions and constraints. Use actual APIs and keep simulator evidence separate from live execution.
- 2026-07-19 · 3 min read
Reducing Latency in a Prediction-Market Trading Bot
Measure feed, callback and request timing before optimizing a paper research process. Preserve authentication, rate limits and data validity while comparing changes.
- 2026-07-18 · 4 min read
Market Selection: Which Prediction Markets to Trade
Choose a contract for paper research using quote evidence, exact payout rules, time windows and a testable hypothesis. Preserve identifiers, missing data and model limits.
- 2026-07-16 · 4 min read
Avoiding Overfitting in Strategy Backtests
How to spot an overfit prediction-market strategy and the guardrails that catch it: out-of-sample splits, parameter robustness, and trade-count sanity checks.
- 2026-07-14 · 3 min read
Common Mistakes When Automating Prediction-Market Trading
Common research and automation mistakes in event contracts: quote units, costs, retry safety, shutdown assumptions and historical selection. Check the actual paper scope.
- 2026-07-13 · 4 min read
From Backtest to Paper: A Research Checklist
Check fee, fill, quantity, constraint and failure assumptions before a bounded forward paper test. A passing backtest does not enable public live execution.
- 2026-07-12 · 3 min read
Sports Event Contracts Explained
Understand sports contract payout rules, price units, early-sale constraints and settlement. Distinguish ordinary binary examples from scalar products and paper evidence.
- 2026-07-10 · 3 min read
Pairs Trading in Prediction Markets
Explore statistical and logical relationships between event contracts, with timing, settlement and two-leg risk checks. A spread signal is not guaranteed arbitrage.
- 2026-07-09 · 4 min read
Managing Inventory Risk When Market-Making Event Contracts
Track inventory and outstanding order exposure when quoting event contracts. Understand why a reservation-price formula does not guarantee liquidation at resolution.
- 2026-07-04 · 4 min read
Prediction-Market Fees Explained: Polymarket vs Kalshi
Check current venue fee rules, execution role and rounding before interpreting a paper result. Distinguish raw fee arithmetic from Banger’s implemented simulation model.
- 2026-07-03 · 4 min read
Position Tracking and PnL for Binary Event Contracts
Keep held quantity, cost basis, marked P&L and actual settlement cash distinct. Validate a paid-long example and inspect Banger’s mode-specific accounting assumptions.
- 2026-06-25 · 3 min read
Slippage and Liquidity in Prediction Markets: Estimating Snapshot Costs
Estimate displayed ask-side cost from a validated book snapshot, including unfilled quantity. Depth is a research input, not a guarantee of fills or market impact.
- 2026-06-17 · 4 min read
Position Sizing for Prediction-Market Bots: Beyond Full Kelly
Understand a frictionless binary Kelly calculation, its model assumptions and its limits. Keep simulated dollar stake, contract quantity and cumulative exposure distinct.
- 2026-06-12 · 4 min read
Momentum Trading on Prediction Markets
Treat momentum as a testable price-change hypothesis. Inspect quotes, timestamps and costs with a working no-order Banger observer before modeling simulated trades.
- 2026-06-11 · 4 min read
Mean-Reversion Strategies for Prediction Markets
Research mean reversion with an explicit baseline, verified price units and resolution rules. Test a runnable feature calculation without assuming a price drop is an edge.
- 2026-06-10 · 4 min read
Market Making on Prediction Markets: Quoting Both Sides of a Binary Contract
Understand two-sided quote planning, inventory skew and adverse selection. Validate a runnable quote calculator while keeping simulated fills separate from real market making.
- 2026-06-09 · 3 min read
Can You Make Money on Polymarket?
Read historical Polymarket profit research without treating a trader classification as your odds of success. Separate price discovery, executable evidence and paper simulations.
- 2026-06-08 · 3 min read
Are Prediction Markets Gambling?
Separate the economic resemblance to wagering from venue registration and jurisdiction-specific law, without unsupported legal or profitability conclusions.
- 2026-06-07 · 3 min read
How Are Polymarket Markets Resolved?
Identify the market-specific resolution source, understand UMA proposals and disputes, and distinguish Chainlink-resolved markets and the separate US venue.
- 2026-06-06 · 3 min read
Is Polymarket Legal in the US? The 2026 Answer
Distinguish Polymarket international from the registered US exchange, check current access rules, and avoid treating registration as personal legal advice.
- 2026-06-05 · 4 min read
Prediction Markets vs the Stock Market: What Actually Differs
Binary event contracts vs open-ended equities: how the payoff structure, resolution mechanics, and tradeable views differ, and why trading automation applies to both.
- 2026-06-04 · 4 min read
Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting: A Structural Comparison
Kalshi and Polymarket US vs sportsbooks: exchange vs house model, two-sided pricing, vig vs spread, early exit, and CFTC vs state gaming regulation explained.
- 2026-06-03 · 4 min read
Implied Probability in Prediction Markets: How to Read a Price
How prediction market contract prices translate into probabilities, how to convert between price and odds, why Yes + No always equals $1, and how to spot mispriced markets.
- 2026-06-02 · 5 min read
What Is an Event Contract?
Event contracts are CFTC-regulated binary instruments that settle at $0 or $1 based on a real-world outcome. Learn how they work, how they differ from options and futures, and why they are the foundation of prediction-market trading.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
Prediction Market Arbitrage Explained
How prediction market arbitrage works on Polymarket and Kalshi: within-market YES+NO mispricing, cross-venue gaps, correlated markets, and why fees, slippage, and settlement rules make it hard.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
How to Backtest a Prediction-Market Strategy
Backtesting on Polymarket and Kalshi differs from equities. What binary resolution changes, the data you need, the pitfalls that inflate results, and why paper trading still matters.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
Is Kalshi Legal? A 2026 Guide
Is Kalshi legal in 2026? A clear guide to its CFTC regulation, the state-by-state sports contract fight, and why API and automated trading are allowed.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
Using the Kelly Criterion on Prediction Markets
How to size prediction-market bets with the Kelly Criterion. The binary-contract formula f = (p - c)/(1 - c), why fractional Kelly, a worked example, fees and slippage.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
Prediction Market Trading Strategies That Actually Have an Edge
Four prediction market trading strategies with real edge: fading longshots near resolution, volume-surge follow, late-line fades, and correlated-market arbitrage on Polymarket and Kalshi.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
Polymarket vs Kalshi: Differences for Traders
A trader-focused comparison of Polymarket and Kalshi covering US legality, CFTC regulation, markets, fees, settlement, and API automation as of 2026.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
How Do Prediction Markets Work?
How prediction markets work: YES/NO contracts priced 0 to 1, order books with bids, asks, and spreads, why price reflects probability, plus resolution, settlement, and fees on Kalshi and Polymarket.
- 2026-06-01 · 5 min read
What Is a Prediction Market?
What a prediction market is, how binary contracts price probability, real examples across sports, politics, and econ, and why traders use Polymarket and Kalshi.
- 2026-06-01 · 4 min read
Paper Trading Prediction Markets: Test Before You Risk Capital
Why paper trading is the single most important habit for prediction-market automation, and how to do it against the live Polymarket and Kalshi order books.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
How to Build a Polymarket Trading Bot (2026)
A step-by-step guide to building an automated Polymarket trading bot: write a strategy in Python, paper-trade it against the live order book, and go live with hard risk limits.