Blog
Guides and ideas for automating prediction-market trading on Polymarket and Kalshi.
- 2026-07-28 · 6 min read
How to Build a Prediction-Market Data Pipeline
A practical guide to collecting, storing, and serving Polymarket and Kalshi order-book data for strategy research: schema, sampling frequency, and resolution gotchas.
- 2026-07-27 · 6 min read
Python Libraries for Prediction-Market Trading: Polymarket and Kalshi
A survey of Python SDKs and libraries for Polymarket and Kalshi: what py-sdk, py-clob-client-v2, kalshi-python, and community tools do, and where the gaps are.
- 2026-07-23 · 6 min read
Risk Management for Prediction-Market Bots
Per-trade caps, daily loss stops, max open positions, and kill switches for automated Polymarket and Kalshi strategies, plus how to pick sensible defaults.
- 2026-07-21 · 6 min read
How to Automate Prediction-Market Trading
A practical guide to automating prediction-market trading: the data, signal, execution, and risk pieces, build-vs-buy tradeoffs, and where a strategy runtime fits.
- 2026-07-19 · 6 min read
Reducing Latency in a Prediction-Market Trading Bot
Where latency comes from in a Polymarket or Kalshi bot, from polling to order round-trips, and practical ways to cut it. Plus when latency actually matters.
- 2026-07-18 · 6 min read
Market Selection: Which Prediction Markets to Trade
How to filter prediction markets worth automating: liquidity, resolution clarity, time to resolution, and edge. A practical screen for avoiding thin or ambiguous markets.
- 2026-07-16 · 6 min read
Avoiding Overfitting in Strategy Backtests
How to spot an overfit prediction-market strategy and the guardrails that catch it: out-of-sample splits, parameter robustness, and trade-count sanity checks.
- 2026-07-14 · 6 min read
Common Mistakes When Automating Prediction-Market Trading
The usual ways automated Kalshi and Polymarket strategies blow up: ignored fees and slippage, oversizing, no kill switch, resolution bugs, and overfit backtests.
- 2026-07-13 · 6 min read
From Backtest to Live: A Pre-Flight Checklist
Before you flip a prediction-market strategy from paper to real money, verify edge after fees, slippage assumptions, risk limits, and failure handling. A concrete checklist.
- 2026-07-12 · 6 min read
Sports Event Contracts Explained
What sports event contracts are, how they differ from sportsbook bets, why you can sell before the game ends, and how they settle. Regulatory status as of mid-2026.
- 2026-07-10 · 6 min read
Pairs Trading in Prediction Markets
How to build, size, and manage a relative-value spread between two correlated prediction market contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi.
- 2026-07-09 · 6 min read
Managing Inventory Risk When Market-Making Event Contracts
How inventory accumulates when you quote both sides of an event contract, why it gets dangerous near resolution, and how to skew quotes to stay flat.
- 2026-07-04 · 6 min read
Prediction-Market Fees Explained: Polymarket vs Kalshi
How Polymarket and Kalshi charge maker, taker, settlement, and deposit fees, and how those costs eat into a strategy's edge. With current fee formulas.
- 2026-07-03 · 6 min read
Position Tracking and PnL for Binary Event Contracts
How to track positions and compute realized and unrealized PnL for binary 0/1 event contracts, including the resolution jump, and where naive equity-style PnL breaks.
- 2026-06-25 · 6 min read
Slippage and Liquidity in Prediction Markets: How to Read Depth and Size Without Moving the Book
Read order-book depth, estimate slippage for a given order size, and size into thin prediction-market contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi without moving price.
- 2026-06-17 · 6 min read
Position Sizing for Prediction-Market Bots: Beyond Full Kelly
Why full Kelly is too aggressive for all-or-nothing prediction-market payoffs, how fractional sizing works on binary bets, and how to enforce caps on every order.
- 2026-06-12 · 6 min read
Momentum Trading on Prediction Markets
How to trade probability drift on Kalshi and Polymarket: news-driven repricing, riding resolution drift, filtering noise in thin books, and a Banger strategy example with risk caps.
- 2026-06-11 · 6 min read
Mean-Reversion Strategies for Prediction Markets
How to identify overreaction candidates on Kalshi and Polymarket, avoid the resolution-risk trap, and build a paper-first mean-reversion strategy with Banger.
- 2026-06-10 · 6 min read
Market Making on Prediction Markets: Quoting Both Sides of a Binary Contract
How to quote bids and offers on Kalshi and Polymarket binary contracts: inventory risk, adverse selection around news, when to widen or pull quotes, and a concrete Python strategy sketch.
- 2026-06-09 · 6 min read
Can You Make Money on Polymarket?
An honest look at who actually profits on Polymarket, backed by the April 2026 LBS/Yale study showing only 3.14% of accounts are skilled winners, plus where real edge lives.
- 2026-06-08 · 6 min read
Are Prediction Markets Gambling?
Prediction markets sit at the intersection of CFTC-regulated derivatives and state gambling law. Here is the legal, economic, and practical answer to whether they are gambling.
- 2026-06-07 · 6 min read
How Are Polymarket Markets Resolved?
A technical breakdown of Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle: the propose-and-dispute cycle, bond mechanics, real dispute failures, and how Polymarket US resolution differs as a CFTC-regulated venue.
- 2026-06-06 · 5 min read
Is Polymarket Legal in the US? The 2026 Answer
The international polymarket.com blocks US persons. Polymarket US, built on CFTC-regulated QCEX, launched in December 2025. Here is the full legal picture for 2026.
- 2026-06-05 · 5 min read
Prediction Markets vs the Stock Market: What Actually Differs
Binary event contracts vs open-ended equities: how the payoff structure, resolution mechanics, and tradeable views differ, and why trading automation applies to both.
- 2026-06-04 · 5 min read
Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting: A Structural Comparison
Kalshi and Polymarket US vs sportsbooks: exchange vs house model, two-sided pricing, vig vs spread, early exit, and CFTC vs state gaming regulation explained.
- 2026-06-03 · 5 min read
Implied Probability in Prediction Markets: How to Read a Price
How prediction market contract prices translate into probabilities, how to convert between price and odds, why Yes + No always equals $1, and how to spot mispriced markets.
- 2026-06-02 · 5 min read
What Is an Event Contract?
Event contracts are CFTC-regulated binary instruments that settle at $0 or $1 based on a real-world outcome. Learn how they work, how they differ from options and futures, and why they are the foundation of prediction-market trading.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
Prediction Market Arbitrage Explained
How prediction market arbitrage works on Polymarket and Kalshi: within-market YES+NO mispricing, cross-venue gaps, correlated markets, and why fees, slippage, and settlement rules make it hard.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
How to Backtest a Prediction-Market Strategy
Backtesting on Polymarket and Kalshi differs from equities. What binary resolution changes, the data you need, the pitfalls that inflate results, and why paper trading still matters.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
Is Kalshi Legal? A 2026 Guide
Is Kalshi legal in 2026? A clear guide to its CFTC regulation, the state-by-state sports contract fight, and why API and automated trading are allowed.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
Using the Kelly Criterion on Prediction Markets
How to size prediction-market bets with the Kelly Criterion. The binary-contract formula f = (p - c)/(1 - c), why fractional Kelly, a worked example, fees and slippage.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
Prediction Market Trading Strategies That Actually Have an Edge
Four prediction market trading strategies with real edge: fading longshots near resolution, volume-surge follow, late-line fades, and correlated-market arbitrage on Polymarket and Kalshi.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
Polymarket vs Kalshi: Differences for Traders
A trader-focused comparison of Polymarket and Kalshi covering US legality, CFTC regulation, markets, fees, settlement, and API automation as of 2026.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
How Do Prediction Markets Work?
How prediction markets work: YES/NO contracts priced 0 to 1, order books with bids, asks, and spreads, why price reflects probability, plus resolution, settlement, and fees on Kalshi and Polymarket.
- 2026-06-01 · 5 min read
What Is a Prediction Market?
What a prediction market is, how binary contracts price probability, real examples across sports, politics, and econ, and why traders use Polymarket and Kalshi.
- 2026-06-01 · 4 min read
Paper Trading Prediction Markets: Test Before You Risk Capital
Why paper trading is the single most important habit for prediction-market automation, and how to do it against the live Polymarket and Kalshi order books.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
How to Build a Polymarket Trading Bot (2026)
A step-by-step guide to building an automated Polymarket trading bot: write a strategy in Python, paper-trade it against the live order book, and go live with hard risk limits.