Blog
Guides and ideas for automating prediction-market trading on Polymarket and Kalshi.
- 2026-06-12 · 6 min read
Momentum Trading on Prediction Markets
How to trade probability drift on Kalshi and Polymarket: news-driven repricing, riding resolution drift, filtering noise in thin books, and a Banger strategy example with risk caps.
- 2026-06-11 · 6 min read
Mean-Reversion Strategies for Prediction Markets
How to identify overreaction candidates on Kalshi and Polymarket, avoid the resolution-risk trap, and build a paper-first mean-reversion strategy with Banger.
- 2026-06-10 · 6 min read
Market Making on Prediction Markets: Quoting Both Sides of a Binary Contract
How to quote bids and offers on Kalshi and Polymarket binary contracts: inventory risk, adverse selection around news, when to widen or pull quotes, and a concrete Python strategy sketch.
- 2026-06-09 · 6 min read
Can You Make Money on Polymarket?
An honest look at who actually profits on Polymarket, backed by the April 2026 LBS/Yale study showing only 3.14% of accounts are skilled winners, plus where real edge lives.
- 2026-06-08 · 6 min read
Are Prediction Markets Gambling?
Prediction markets sit at the intersection of CFTC-regulated derivatives and state gambling law. Here is the legal, economic, and practical answer to whether they are gambling.
- 2026-06-07 · 6 min read
How Are Polymarket Markets Resolved?
A technical breakdown of Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle: the propose-and-dispute cycle, bond mechanics, real dispute failures, and how Polymarket US resolution differs as a CFTC-regulated venue.
- 2026-06-06 · 5 min read
Is Polymarket Legal in the US? The 2026 Answer
The international polymarket.com blocks US persons. Polymarket US, built on CFTC-regulated QCEX, launched in December 2025. Here is the full legal picture for 2026.
- 2026-06-05 · 5 min read
Prediction Markets vs the Stock Market: What Actually Differs
Binary event contracts vs open-ended equities: how the payoff structure, resolution mechanics, and tradeable views differ, and why trading automation applies to both.
- 2026-06-04 · 5 min read
Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting: A Structural Comparison
Kalshi and Polymarket US vs sportsbooks: exchange vs house model, two-sided pricing, vig vs spread, early exit, and CFTC vs state gaming regulation explained.
- 2026-06-03 · 5 min read
Implied Probability in Prediction Markets: How to Read a Price
How prediction market contract prices translate into probabilities, how to convert between price and odds, why Yes + No always equals $1, and how to spot mispriced markets.
- 2026-06-02 · 5 min read
What Is an Event Contract?
Event contracts are CFTC-regulated binary instruments that settle at $0 or $1 based on a real-world outcome. Learn how they work, how they differ from options and futures, and why they are the foundation of prediction-market trading.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
Prediction Market Arbitrage Explained
How prediction market arbitrage works on Polymarket and Kalshi: within-market YES+NO mispricing, cross-venue gaps, correlated markets, and why fees, slippage, and settlement rules make it hard.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
How to Backtest a Prediction-Market Strategy
Backtesting on Polymarket and Kalshi differs from equities. What binary resolution changes, the data you need, the pitfalls that inflate results, and why paper trading still matters.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
Is Kalshi Legal? A 2026 Guide
Is Kalshi legal in 2026? A clear guide to its CFTC regulation, the state-by-state sports contract fight, and why API and automated trading are allowed.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
Using the Kelly Criterion on Prediction Markets
How to size prediction-market bets with the Kelly Criterion. The binary-contract formula f = (p - c)/(1 - c), why fractional Kelly, a worked example, fees and slippage.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
Prediction Market Trading Strategies That Actually Have an Edge
Four prediction market trading strategies with real edge: fading longshots near resolution, volume-surge follow, late-line fades, and correlated-market arbitrage on Polymarket and Kalshi.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
Polymarket vs Kalshi: Differences for Traders
A trader-focused comparison of Polymarket and Kalshi covering US legality, CFTC regulation, markets, fees, settlement, and API automation as of 2026.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
How Do Prediction Markets Work?
How prediction markets work: YES/NO contracts priced 0 to 1, order books with bids, asks, and spreads, why price reflects probability, plus resolution, settlement, and fees on Kalshi and Polymarket.
- 2026-06-01 · 5 min read
What Is a Prediction Market?
What a prediction market is, how binary contracts price probability, real examples across sports, politics, and econ, and why traders use Polymarket and Kalshi.
- 2026-06-01 · 4 min read
Paper Trading Prediction Markets: Test Before You Risk Capital
Why paper trading is the single most important habit for prediction-market automation, and how to do it against the live Polymarket and Kalshi order books.
- 2026-06-01 · 6 min read
How to Build a Polymarket Trading Bot (2026)
A step-by-step guide to building an automated Polymarket trading bot: write a strategy in Python, paper-trade it against the live order book, and go live with hard risk limits.